|

USD/JPY to move largely sideways, before declining modestly over 2024 – HSBC

USD/JPY continues to hold just below 150. Economists at HSBC analyze the pair’s outlook.

Ongoing improvement in Japan’s current account balance will provide some support for the JPY

Our base case is that USD/JPY is likely to move sideways for an extended period of time, before declining modestly over 2024, amid our expectations of narrowing (but still large) yield differentials. 

We also think the ongoing improvement in Japan’s current account balance will provide some fundamental support for the JPY. Indeed, Japan’s merchandise trade balance swung to a surplus in September, reflecting healthy export gains (supported by JPY weakness).

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eases from around 1.1800 after US GDP figures

The US Dollar is finding some near-term demand after the release of the US Q3 GDP. According to the report, the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the three months to September, well above the 3.3% forecast by market analysts.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD retreats from session highs and trades slightly below 1.3500 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar stages a rebound following the better-than-expected Q3 growth data, limiting the pair's upside ahead of the Christmas break.

Gold rises to record high above $4,500 on safe-haven flows

Gold rises and hits its record high around $4,505 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as the Israel-Iran conflict and the rising in US-Venezuela tensions boost the safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the recent soft US inflation and cool jobs reports have fueled market expectations for at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve next year. 

XRP price under pressure amid technical weakness and reduced whale holdings

Ripple is extending its decline below $1.90 at the time of writing on Tuesday, as headwinds intensify across the crypto market. Negative market sentiment has persisted despite a surge in inflows to XRP spot Exchange Traded Funds.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Dogecoin ticks lower as low Open Interest, funding rate weigh on buyers

Dogecoin extends its decline as risk-off sentiment dominates across the crypto market. DOGE’s derivatives market remains weak amid suppressed futures Open Interest and perpetual funding rate.