USD/INR rebounds ahead of US Services PMI
- Indian Rupee loses traction on the stronger US Dollar.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to keep the rate unchanged at 6.50% on Thursday.
- Investors will focus on the US ISM Services PMI for January, due on Monday.
Indian Rupee (INR) recovers its recent losses on Monday. The rebound of the pair is bolstered by the upbeat US job data that prompted a rise in Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD). Continued strength in US job market data is expected to dampen hopes for early rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which boosts the Greenback broadly.
Economists anticipated that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would keep the rate unchanged until at least the third quarter, compared to expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut its key interest rate next quarter.
Later on Monday, the US ISM Services PMI will be released. Market players will closely watch the RBI interest rate decision on Thursday, which is expected to maintain the status quo for a sixth consecutive policy review.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains under pressure amid global factors
- India’s S&P Global Services PMI improved to 61.8 in January from 59.0 in the previous reading, beating the estimation of 61.2. The figure remains above the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction for the 30th consecutive month.
- India's January services growth is at a six-month high due to strong demand.
- India's 10-year benchmark bond yield closed at 7.0555% on Friday, marking the biggest weekly drop in 15 months.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will leave its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% on Thursday, according to economists polled by Reuters.
- The Indian government will spend a record 11.11 trillion Rupees (approximately $134 billion) on infrastructure development.
- The budget deficit for fiscal year 24 is projected to be 5.8% of GDP.
- The Indian government aims to lower the budget deficit to less than 4.5% by FY26.
- The Indian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 in January from 54.9 in November.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in better than expected, surging to 353K in January from 333K in December (revised up from 216K).
- The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Finally, wage growth is firming, with Average Hourly Earnings growing 4.5% YoY in January from 4.4% in December.
- The probability of a March rate cut has dropped to 19%, compared to 38% just a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said a rate cut in March is too soon, as he doesn’t believe the FOMC will have the confidence by then that inflation is heading back to 2% sustainably.
- Powell added that policymakers see it appropriate to cut rates this year, but it is prudent to be open to the possibility of rates falling from spring onwards.
- The US central bank will discuss at the March meeting the timing of easing the pace of quantitative tightening (QT).
Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee extends the range play within 82.78–83.45
Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair consolidated within a two-month-old descending trend channel of 82.78–83.45. From a technical perspective, the bearish tone of USD/INR remains unchanged as the pair is below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), stands below the 50.0 midline, indicating that bearish momentum is in play.
On the other hand, any follow-through buying above the 83.00 psychological handle will see a rally to the upper boundary of the descending trend channel and a high of January 18 at 83.18. The next hurdle will emerge at a high of January 2 at 83.35.
In case our bearish USD scenario plays out, the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.71. acts as a potential support level for the pair. A breach of this level could take the pair back to a low of August 23 at 82.45, followed by a low of June 1 at 82.25.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.01% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.17% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.01% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.17% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.27% | 0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.01% | 0.08% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.18% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.10% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.20% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.23% | -0.20% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
RBI FAQs
What is the role of the Reserve Bank of India?
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India affect the Rupee?
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Does the Reserve Bank of India directly intervene in FX markets?
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
