USD: Focus shifts to Beige Book – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities strategists note a sharp rally in US rates alongside a risk-on move in equities, with the S&P 500 nearing record highs after softer PPI data. They estimate March core PCE at 0.26% month-on-month. With limited key data, TIC flows, Fed speakers Barr and Bowman, and the Beige Book are in focus, while markets track Middle East conflict developments.

US markets eye flows and Fed signals

"Rates rallied sharply on Tuesday with a risk-on move in equities, moving the S&P 500 just a touch below all-time highs. PPI came in below expectations for headline, with our new core PCE forecast for March at a moderate 0.26% m/m."

"The Senate Banking Committee announced that Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing will be scheduled for April 21 at 10:00am EDT."

"In addition to data, Barr and Bowman are set to speak and the Fed's Beige Book will be released. Markets will remain focused on conflict in the Middle East as they continue to wait on news amid the ongoing ceasefire."

"On Wednesday, with little by way of key data, TIC flows will be of interest as investors look for clues about foreign holdings of Treasuries in February."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold shrugs off hot US PPI as risk aversion drives bond yields lower

Gold attracts fresh buying on Thursday as weakness across global equities, driven by mounting concerns over AI-related investments, triggers a sharp pullback in US Treasury yields and drags the US Dollar lower from fresh year-to-date highs.

Ripple clings to $1.30 support as downside risks intensify

Ripple is stuck in a bearish trend, trading near $1.30 on Thursday. The remittance token’s bearish shift reflects the broader cryptocurrency market, which remains under heavy selling amid concerns about accelerating inflation in the US.

Budget preview: Is Healey impressing the bond market?

There is less than 2 weeks to go before the Chancellor delivers his first budget. Unusually for the UK, the economic and financial backdrop to this budget is upbeat. UK bonds have been rallying, the FTSE 100 is the top performing major stock index this week, and the Pound is also stabilising versus the Dollar.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?