USD: Data focus on retail sales and ISM – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities analysts highlight that strong February US Retail Sales and a third consecutive rise in ISM Manufacturing could support the Dollar in coming days. They expect above-consensus gains in headline and control group sales and sees ISM at 53.0, while noting downside risks from the Iran conflict and close monitoring of inflation-sensitive components.

Retail Sales and ISM seen stronger

"On Wednesday, retail sales will grab focus, where we expect above consensus prints for February in both headline and control group. ISM manufacturing is also likely to surprise higher at 53.0. In addition to data, Musalem and Barr are also set to speak, with Barr focusing on AI and the consumer."

"We look for retail sales to increase 0.6% m/m in February after contracting 0.2% (consensus: 0.5%). Rebounds in the volatile auto and gas sales should drive the strength after declining for two consecutive reports. Food services also likely rose for the first time since November."

"We look for control group sales to stay positive, printing 0.4% (consensus: 0.3%)."

"We look for ISM manufacturing to rise for a third consecutive month in March to 53.0 with gains broad-based across components—as signaled by regional Fed surveys (consensus: 52.3). However, mounting geopolitical concerns from the Iran conflict present a clear downside risk."

"Prices paid will be key to watch as the market remains attuned to signs of underlying inflation risks. The component spiked higher in February and could remain elevated amid rising price pressures."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD edges lower below 1.3650, with eyes on US PCE data

GBP/USD trades with a negative bias below 1.3650 in the European session on Wednesday, eroding a part of the previous day's strong gains. The pair, however, remains within striking distance of a six-month top, set last Friday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for a fresh impetus.

EUR/USD holds lower ground near 1.1650 ahead of key US data

EUR/USD is holding lower ground toward 1.1650 in Wednesday's European session. The US Dollar is recovering modestly amid profit-taking and Middle East uncertainty. US inflation, tracked by the PCE, and another revision of Q2 GDP data should keep investors entertained on Wednesday.

Gold remains depressed below $4,650 on firmer USD; looks to US PCE for Fed rate outlook

Gold sticks to modest losses below $4,650 heading into the European session, though it lacks bearish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. The US Dollar regains positive traction amid some repositioning ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and is seen as weighing on the commodity. Adding to this, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday might offer more cues about the interest rate path.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe: Profit-taking cools last week’s rally

Meme coins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE), are losing their bullish momentum after last week’s double-digit gains. Facing downside pressure amid profit-taking, DOGE and PEPE risk further decline while SHIB holds at a support level.

America’s self‑inflicted trade wound

I’m conflicted about the trade war that the U.S. has started with Canada. Let’s be clear: any representation that Canada has been taking unfair advantage of the U.S. or that they have been treating us badly for years is a bogus characterization. In reality, the shoe is on the other foot. It’s the U.S. that has been behaving badly.

Canada hits US goods with tariffs; The rate market sees a problem

On September 8, Canada begins charging its own importers 15%, 25% and 50% on roughly 700 lines of American goods. The measure is billed as dollar for dollar, and on the arithmetic of covered trade it is. What it is not is a tax on the United States.