USD: Data focus on retail sales and ISM – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts highlight that strong February US Retail Sales and a third consecutive rise in ISM Manufacturing could support the Dollar in coming days. They expect above-consensus gains in headline and control group sales and sees ISM at 53.0, while noting downside risks from the Iran conflict and close monitoring of inflation-sensitive components.

Retail Sales and ISM seen stronger

"On Wednesday, retail sales will grab focus, where we expect above consensus prints for February in both headline and control group. ISM manufacturing is also likely to surprise higher at 53.0. In addition to data, Musalem and Barr are also set to speak, with Barr focusing on AI and the consumer."

"We look for retail sales to increase 0.6% m/m in February after contracting 0.2% (consensus: 0.5%). Rebounds in the volatile auto and gas sales should drive the strength after declining for two consecutive reports. Food services also likely rose for the first time since November."

"We look for control group sales to stay positive, printing 0.4% (consensus: 0.3%)."

"We look for ISM manufacturing to rise for a third consecutive month in March to 53.0 with gains broad-based across components—as signaled by regional Fed surveys (consensus: 52.3). However, mounting geopolitical concerns from the Iran conflict present a clear downside risk."

"Prices paid will be key to watch as the market remains attuned to signs of underlying inflation risks. The component spiked higher in February and could remain elevated amid rising price pressures."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)