USD/CHF rebounds above 0.8750, Fed rate decision in focus
- USD/CHF drifts higher to near 0.8770 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Investors await policy announcements from the Fed on Wednesday.
- The SNB is likely to cut its key interest rate by 25 bps on Thursday to 0.25%.
The USD/CHF pair gains ground to around 0.8770 during the Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by the renewed Greenback demand. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. The attention will shift to the Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy meeting later on Thursday.
Market consensus suggests that the Fed will keep its federal funds rate unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Traders will focus on the Press Conference and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or ‘dot-plot,’ for more cues about the future interest rate path and the economic outlook. Any hawkish comments from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the possibility of a rate reduction at the May meeting has risen to 25% from 18% a month ago.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is anticipated to cut its main policy rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday to 0.25% and hold it there until at least 2026, according to most economists polled by Reuters. “The only significant uncertainty to the view of the SNB holding rates steady at this meeting, for me, stems from a certain dimming of the global growth picture,” said Claude Maurer, chief economist of Basel-based BAK Economics.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday agreed to an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. However, Putin declined to sign up for the comprehensive month-long ceasefire that Trump's team recently worked out with Ukrainians in Saudi Arabia. Traders will watch the developments surrounding the full ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
