USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejected at 0.8000 as double top looms
- USD/CHF fails at 0.8000, forming a potential double-top pattern.
- RSI shows weakening momentum despite broader constructive recovery trend.
- Break below 0.7970 exposes 200-day SMA and 0.7900 support.
USD/CHF failed to clear key resistance at 0.8000 on Monday, recoiling to the 0.7900 handle as a double-top chart pattern looms. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7979, down 0.18%.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The technical picture shows that USD/CHF has enjoyed a steady recovery since bottoming at the yearly low of 0.7601 late January. Momentum seems constructive, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggests bulls are losing some steam.
If USD/CHF breaks the key support trendline around 0.7970, it opens the door to a move lower past the 0.7950 psychological figure, towards the next support at the 200-day SMA at 0.7940. On further weakness, the next stop is the 20-day SMA at 0.7909.
For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for USD/CHF is 0.8000, followed by the April 3 high at 0.8012. A breach of the latter will expose the January 15 high at 0.8041, followed by the November 25 daily peak at 0.8102.
USD/CHF Price Chart — Daily
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
