USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar eases towards 0.8100 ahead of the NFP release

USD/CHF pulls back to the 0.8100 area after failure to extend gains beyond 0.8135.
US Dollar's upside momentum has waned on Friday, with investors awaiting Nonfarm Payrolls data.
The technical picture shows the near-term bullish trend intact while above 0.8075.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) pares gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, with the USD/CHF pair drifting towards the 0.8100 level, after rejection at 0.8136 highs on Thursday. The Greenback is still on track for a 0.3% rally this week, but investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is keeping USD bulls in check on Friday.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement in July's payrolls, looking for “a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls.” They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum.

In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate Index, released earlier in the day, has shown a slight improvement to -35 in Q3, from -40 in the previous quarter, although it remains close to historic lows. The impact on the Swissie has been minimal.

Technical Analysis: The Near-term bias remains positive

USD/CHF trades at 0.8105, after retreating from 0.813, yet with price action showing a constructive pattern from July 30 lows. Momentum is positive, although showing fading bullish traction, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line marginally above its signal and zero.

US Dollar bears are testing support at a previous resistance zone above 0.8100. Further down, the trendline resistance from the mentioned July 30 low, now around 0.8075, and the bottom of August's trading range, at the 0.8055-0.8060 area, are likely to test downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8124 and the July 30 high at 0.8175 ahead of the 13-month high, at 0.8205 hit in late July.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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