USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists below 0.8100 confluence hurdle
- USD/CHF attracts some dip-buyers, though the upside remains capped amid a softer USD.
- Hopes for a US-Iran deal and receding Fed hike bets undermine the safe-haven Greenback.
- Acceptance above 0.8100 could pave the way for further near-term gains amid a mixed setup.
The USD/CHF pair reverses a modest intraday dip and touches a fresh daily high during the early European session on Wednesday, though it remains below the 0.8100 mark. The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its negative bias amid hopes for a US-Iran deal and receding Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations, which is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and await the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's policy path. This, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, will drive the buck and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CHF pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high – levels above the 0.8200 mark set in July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive around the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at modest, rather than decisive, bullish momentum.
This suggests that upside attempts are still constrained by the nearby cluster of overhead resistance near the 0.8100 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibo. level. Further barriers emerge at the 50.0% level at 0.8121 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8141, before stronger resistance at 0.8169 and the swing high zone near 0.8205.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement at 0.8077, with a break exposing the cycle low region around 0.8037 as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CHF 1-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.47% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | -0.04% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.50% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.55% | 0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.00% | 0.45% | 0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.42% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.46% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.47% | -0.50% | -0.55% | -0.45% | -0.42% | -0.46% | -0.39% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.04% | 0.01% | -0.05% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
