USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls await 200-EMA breakout near 1.3770 ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD regains some positive traction on Wednesday amid a combination of supporting factors.
Geopolitical risks and Fed hike bets lift the USD, while retreating Oil prices undermine the Loonie.
Bulls await a sustained strength beyond the 200-day EMA as the focus remains on FOMC Minutes.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair attracts some dip-buyers on Wednesday and climbs to the 1.3765-1.3770 region during the first half of the European session, back closer to its highest level since April 14, touched the previous day. The intraday move up is sponsored by a combination of supporting factors, as traders now look forward to the release of FOMC Minutes for a fresh impetus.

The US Dollar (USD) stands firm near a six-week high amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and rising bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Furthermore, a modest pullback in Crude Oil prices, along with Tuesday's softer-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices now seem to have found acceptance above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-May downfall. Bulls now await a sustained move beyond the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resistance before positioning for an extension of the recent move up witnessed over the past three weeks or so, from the 1.3550 level, or a two-month trough.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60, and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hints at improving bullish momentum. The USD/CAD pair, however, needs to clear the aforementioned hurdle to unlock a more constructive bias. The subsequent move up could extend to the 61.8% Fibo. at 1.3806 en route to the 78.6% retracement near 1.3876 and the recent swing high around 1.3965.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3757, with further cushions at the 38.2% level near 1.3708 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3647, while a deeper slide toward the 1.3549 anchor cannot be ruled out if the current floor fails.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/CAD daily chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.24%	-0.51%	0.17%	0.12%	0.57%	0.13%	0.47%
EUR	-0.24%		-0.75%	0.00%	-0.13%	0.32%	-0.05%	0.21%
GBP	0.51%	0.75%		0.70%	0.63%	1.08%	0.71%	0.94%
JPY	-0.17%	0.00%	-0.70%		-0.11%	0.32%	-0.11%	0.25%
CAD	-0.12%	0.13%	-0.63%	0.11%		0.43%	0.00%	0.31%
AUD	-0.57%	-0.32%	-1.08%	-0.32%	-0.43%		-0.36%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.13%	0.05%	-0.71%	0.11%	0.00%	0.36%		0.23%
CHF	-0.47%	-0.21%	-0.94%	-0.25%	-0.31%	0.02%	-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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