USD/CAD edges lower as softer US Dollar, higher Oil bolster Canadian outlook

USD/CAD edges lower despite a still uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
A softer US Dollar limits the pair’s upside potential in the short term.
Rising energy prices strengthen Canada’s inflation outlook.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

USD/CAD trades around 1.3685 on Friday, down 0.12% on the day, as the pullback in the US Dollar (USD) dominates price action despite a still fragile geopolitical environment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) loses 0.17% to 98.65, reflecting an easing in market sentiment following signs of de-escalation in tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.

Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi will reach Islamabad on Friday along with a small delegation for the second round of peace talks with the United States, Al Arabiya reported.

This relative calm reduces demand for safe-haven assets, weighing on the Greenback, while risk-sensitive assets regain some support. Hopes for renewed diplomatic talks are helping improve overall sentiment, although risks related to the Strait of Hormuz and energy flows remain in place.

In this context, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefited indirectly from higher energy prices, a key driver for the Canadian economy. According to TD Securities analysts, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to incorporate significantly higher Oil price assumptions in its upcoming Monetary Policy Report, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil projected around $85. This would mark a sharp increase from previous estimates and could drive a temporary rise in inflation toward 3% in the second quarter of the year.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a cautious stance in the near term, according to Commerzbank, keeping rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, rate cuts are still anticipated later in the year, which could continue to weigh on the US Dollar.

Finally, Scotiabank analysts note that the bearish structure in USD/CAD remains intact, limiting rebound attempts. The absence of a significant escalation in market tensions and stretched US Dollar valuations could cap any meaningful upside in the pair in the short term, as Canadian fundamentals gradually improve.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.18%	-0.26%	-0.11%	-0.12%	-0.17%	-0.29%	-0.02%
EUR	0.18%		-0.08%	0.00%	0.06%	0.02%	-0.10%	0.17%
GBP	0.26%	0.08%		0.00%	0.15%	0.09%	-0.02%	0.23%
JPY	0.11%	0.00%	0.00%		-0.01%	-0.06%	-0.18%	0.07%
CAD	0.12%	-0.06%	-0.15%	0.01%		-0.06%	-0.17%	0.09%
AUD	0.17%	-0.02%	-0.09%	0.06%	0.06%		-0.12%	0.12%
NZD	0.29%	0.10%	0.02%	0.18%	0.17%	0.12%		0.26%
CHF	0.02%	-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.07%	-0.09%	-0.12%	-0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

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