USD/CAD: Bullish trend targets low 1.39s – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady to slightly firmer versus the Dollar despite weak risk appetite, helped by a modest bid for commodity currencies. They point to a historically strong April for CAD since the 1970s and note USD/CAD has broken above its 200-day moving average, keeping focus on further upside toward the low 1.39s.

Seasonal tailwinds but chart stays bullish

"The CAD is steady to marginally firmer against the USD on the session, reflecting a modest bid for other commodity currencies on the day despite weak risk appetite. With March more or less in the books, the CAD might be able to look forward to the coming month."

"Seasonal trends since the early 1970s reflect a distinct bump in the CAD’s performance in April—a solidly positive month for the currency against the USD. More recent trends have been a little more nuanced but the tendency for the CAD to strengthen against the USD remains."

"Spot gains through the 200-day MA (1.3806) this week and bullish short-term trend momentum signals keep the technical focus on the topside for funds towards the low 1.39s. Support is 1.3790/00 and 1.3750/60. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD drops toward 0.6900 amid USD uptick, ahead of US NFP

AUD/USD meets fresh supply and drifts toward 0.6900 in the Asian session on Friday, near its lowest level since early July. The US Dollar regains traction near 17-month highs as oil-driven inflationary concerns counter reduced bets on an October Fed rate hike and the overnight pullback in US bond yields, weighing on the pair. Focus is now on the US jobs data.

USD/JPY holds steady near 158.00 after hot Tokyo CPI; US NFP awaited

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.00, the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, moving little after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI, which backs the case for more BoJ rate hikes. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near a one-and-a-half-year top amid oil-driven inflation fears and geopolitical uncertainties, supporting the pair ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold returns to the red and tests $4,150, with eyes on US NFP

Gold edges lower in a multi-day-old range near $4,150 in the Asian session on Friday as traders await the US NFP report for more cues about the Fed's policy path. The outlook will drive the US Dollar and the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, oil-driven inflation fears offset the overnight pullback in US bond yields, helping the USD to stand firm near a one-and-a-half-year high amid the US-Iran standoff.

WTI holds steady near $92.00 as US weighs sending more troops to Middle East

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $91.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI flatlines after a two-day gain as the United States (US) mulled sending another aircraft carrier group to the Middle East.

Why speculators slashed Yen longs by the most since August — and what that signals about risk

For much of the past month, the Japanese Yen (JPY) had become one of the market's preferred defensive trades. Hedge funds accumulated more than 170K net long contracts over four weeks as investors positioned for tighter Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and a more cautious outlook for global growth.

Markets are pricing a Fed pause. The jobs data says the hike is still coming

The market has rapidly changed its mind about the Federal Reserve (Fed). Only a week ago, investors saw an October interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome. However, softer inflation and cautious comments from policymakers have since turned a pause into the dominant scenario. Yet beneath that dramatic repricing, the US economy is sending a considerably less dovish message.