|

US Treasuries: Yields hit multi-year highs – Deutsche Bank

The Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid details a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year touching levels last seen in 2004. The move is driven by strong data and increased odds of a Federal Reserve hike in October. Bund yields also climbed to post-2009 highs, underscoring broad global rates pressure.

Long-end yields break higher

"In the US, despite a partial pullback on Friday, the probability of a Fed hike in October climbed from 53% to 64% over the week."

"And in turn, the 10yr Treasury yield rose +16.6bps (+3.7bps Friday) to 5.16%, after hitting its highest level since 2007 on Thursday."

"There were even bigger milestones for the 30yr yield, which rose +16.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.49%. So that was its highest level since 2004, and also its biggest weekly jump since May."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD is defending 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold sheds 3%, eyeing $4,100 on renewed US-Iran risks

Gold is falling hard at the start of a new week, targeting $4,100 for the first time in eight weeks. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar hold firm, particularly after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer. These factors weigh heavily on the bullion.

Zcash risks a decline below $1,500 as bullish momentum eases

Zcash price hovers below $1,550 on Monday, extending losses after a 4% decline the previous day. Institutional interest in the privacy coin holds firm, recording over $35 million in inflows last week, while retail speculation takes a hit, with ZEC futures Open Interest down around 10% in 24 hours.

Data back in the driver’s seat this week
Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp. It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days. We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.