US PCE inflation data confirm steady disinflation

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

The United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index pointed to a further moderation in inflation in June. The headline index fell by 0.1% MoM after a revised 0.5% increase in May, while the annual rate eased to 3.7% from 4.1%, in line with market expectations.

The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose by 0.1% MoM after increasing 0.3% in May. On an annual basis, core inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4% previously, also matching analysts' estimates but remaining well above the central bank's 2% target.

Overall, the data confirms that the disinflation process in the United States continues without any major surprises for financial markets, leaving expectations for the Fed's monetary policy path largely unchanged.

Market reaction

Following the release, the US Dollar (USD) showed no immediate reaction. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen down around 0.17% on the day, trading near 100.65.

Economic Indicator

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

AUD/USD clinches five-week highs; focus is on 0.7100

AUD/USD has pushed harder on Wednesday, further extending its recent break above the key 0.7000 yardstick. Indeed, the renewed downside pressure on the Greenback lent legs to the Aussie, opening the door to a potential revisit to the 0,.7100 zone.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold hovers around $4,050 after Fed's announcement

Gold ticks higher after the Federal Open Market Committee kept the Fed funds rate unchanged at 4%. XAU/USD advanced as Chair Kevin Warsh explained that hikes are working, cooling down hopes for an aggressive 50 bps hike in December.

Bitcoin and Gold Forecast: BTC bulls hold $80K as XAU defends $4,000 ahead of Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) ticks lower near $80,000 on Wednesday, while Gold (XAU/USD) holds above $4,000. Both assets reflect the broader risk-off sentiment as focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day.

Fed's recap: A cautious hold with a clear warning on inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 3.75%-4.00%, but it wasn’t a unanimous decision. Among two officials who wanted a 25-basis-point hike were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, while Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would use the coming flow of information to decide whether further action is needed. The statement presented a resilient economy.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.