US labour market appears to be cooling further – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Yesterday's US labour market figures showed that the labour market is cooling down slowly: job vacancies fell more sharply than expected in July, while layoffs increased more than anticipated, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Interest rate cuts ahead

"While this fits in with the overall picture of a slowly cooling labour market, it is still a very bad combination. The fact that the figures were for July, is probably why the US dollar did not react too strongly. However, it is likely to have reinforced the belief among all market participants that the Fed will soon start to cut interest rates."

"Yesterday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller also reiterated that he is seeing interest rate cuts in the near future (and several of them). Given his dissenting vote at the end of July, this was not new information, but it underscores once again that upcoming figures will have to be significantly positive to prevent an interest rate cut in just under two weeks."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD strengthens beyond mid-1.3300s vs weak USD amid fresh Iran diplomacy hopes

The GBP/USD pair builds on Friday's modest bounce from a three-week low and gains strong follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices above mid-1.3300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar.

EUR/USD climbs beyond 1.1400 as renewed Iran diplomacy hopes undermine safe-haven USD

The EUR/USD pair builds on a modest bullish gap opening and climbs back above the 1.1400 mark during the Asian session on Monday. The intraday move up is sponsored by a broadly weaker US Dollar, weighed down by renewed optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war.

Gold buyers try their luck on Mideast respite, Oil slump

Gold is off the highs but holds its bullish opening gap, while struggling near $4,100 early Monday. Despite the recent rebound, buyers trade with caution, keeping a close eye on the Middle East developments ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy verdict this week.

Cardano: Under pressure as bearish derivatives cap recovery

Cardano remains under pressure, trading lower at $0.165 on Monday after mild losses in the previous week. Weakening derivatives metrics and subdued momentum indicators suggest that ADA's upside move remains limited, keeping downside risks in focus. Derivatives data for Cardano shows bearish sentiment among traders.

Australian Dollar outlook: Chances of another rally won’t be decided in Canberra, but in Washington

The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.