US-Iran receive plan to end hostilities, discuss two-tier deal - Reuters

Sagar Dua FXStreet

According to a Reuters report, a source aware of ceasefire proposals between the United States (US) and Iran has stated that both nations are discussing a two-tier deal that involves plans to end hostilities by Monday, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran dropping its nuclear ambitions in return for the removal of sanctions and release of frozen assets.

Remarks

Iran, US receive plan to end hostilities, two-tier deal with ceasefire then final agreement.

Plan to end hostilities in Middle East needs to be agreed on Monday.

If agreed, plan will lead to immediate ceasefire, reopening of Strait of Hormuz, with a final agreement in 15–20 days.

Proposal for final agreement includes Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and release of frozen assets.

Pakistan army chief held separate calls with US Vice President (VP) JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi.

Market reaction

There seems to be no immediate impact on the US Dollar (USD) from the release. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades marginally lower at around 100.12.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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