US GDP to contract 34% in Q2 2020 – Goldman Sachs

Anil Panchal FXStreet

While revising its forecast for the US real GDP, Goldman Sachs recently mentioned, “We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in q/q annualized terms.” It’s worth mentioning that the bank earlier estimated -6.0% and -24.00% reductions in the economic output figures. Further, the bank anticipates the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear.

Market implications

The news exerts additional downside pressure on the market’s risk-tone following US President Donald Trump’s expectations of tough times. While portraying the sentiment, S&P 500 Futures drop near 0.90% to 2,540 by the press time.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold resumes downside toward $4,400 despite US Dollar pullback

Gold gives up recovery and resumes its downside toward $4,400 in the Asian session on Monday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech was perceived as hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. Adding to this, fresh US strikes on Iran act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar and should cap the bullion.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.

US Dollar Weekly Forecast: Focus is back on 100.00 as Fed hawks take centre stage

It has already been a positive week for the US Dollar, but a hawkish speech from Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium may have laid the groundwork for a more sustained rebound in the Buck.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.