US Dollar: Supported by higher-for-longer Fed stance – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

TD Securities’ US Economic Outlook suggests a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve stance that is typically supportive for the US Dollar. The bank sees stagflationary risks from the Iran conflict, elevated Oil prices, and stressed supply chains keeping inflation high and preventing rate cuts in 2026. Disinflation and renewed easing are only expected from 2027.

Stagflation risks backstop Dollar rates

"We expect output growth to move sideways this year, reflecting the conflict in Iran. The conflict presents stagflationary risks which we expect will keep the Fed on hold for the entire year. AI and high-income consumers have supported underlying growth."

"With the Iran conflict in a stalemate, oil prices still high, and supply chains stressed, we do not see inflation progress as feasible this year. We expect core CPI inflation to peak at 3.0% y/y in Q4 2026, ending the year higher than it started. The numbers are similarly high in core PCE terms. Most of the impact of higher oil prices will filter into headline inflation. We look for gradual disinflation to resume in 2027."

"The outlook will be fluid amid uncertainty around developments in Iran and the Trump administration's execution of new trade, fiscal, regulatory, and immigration policies. New developments in financial markets and further escalation of geopolitical conflicts remain key risks for our economic projections over the forecast horizon."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD remains sidelined above 1.1650

EUR/USD trades on the defensive following the closing bell on Wall Street on Monday, hovering around the 1.1660 region and adding to Friday’s small decline. The pair’s pullback comes in response to an acceptable rebound in the US Dollar in a context of generalised caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Gold surrenders part of its initial advance, although it keeps its bullish pace well and sound above the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?

Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself. The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets.

Convulsion in credit markets

The United States government just posted a $432.3 billion deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March of 2021. That single burst of red ink pushed the yeartodate deficit to $1.8 trillion, with two months still remaining in fiscal 2026. At this pace, Washington will soon wax nostalgic for the “good old days” when annual deficits were only $2 trillion.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.