United States: Midterm outcomes and policy paths – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategist Angelo Katsoras analyzes how the 2026 United States (US) midterm elections could reshape policy under President Trump. He notes Democrats are favoured by high inflation, weak approval ratings and a strong generic ballot lead. The report outlines scenarios where Democrats take the House alone or both chambers, highlighting implications for legislation, investigations and executive action.

Midterms reshape Washington policy landscape

"The current political environment favours the Democrats. High inflation, rising gasoline and food prices, an unpopular war with Iran, the President’s low approval ratings and the Democrats' roughly seven-to eight-point lead in the generic congressional ballot all point to Democratic gains in the midterms."

"This report examines what the two most likely outcomes—Republicans losing control of one or both chambers—would mean for the President’s legislative agenda, including trade policy."

"Democratic control of both chambers would represent a major political setback for the Trump administration."

"Losing control of both chambers of Congress could weaken President Trump’s position within the Republican Party, particularly if Republicans blame him for their electoral losses."

"Finally, looking beyond the midterms, policy uncertainty is set to rise as attention turns to the priorities of the next presidential administration."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)