Underlying assumptions regarding supply are too optimistic – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Such a significant oversupply as anticipated by the IEA would exert considerable pressure on oil prices, like in 2020, which would have a negative impact on oil production, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC+ oil production has risen by 1 million bpd

"It is therefore questionable whether oil supply will increase as strongly as assumed in the IEA's forecast. An oversupply on the scale mentioned would probably only have no impact on oil prices if there were significant supply disruptions as a result of sanctions or geopolitical events."

"OPEC+ oil production has risen by 1 million barrels per day less than announced since the first quarter of 2025 through September, according to the IEA, because some countries were already producing significantly above the agreed level and others, such as Russia, were reaching their capacity limits."

"The assumption of another strong expansion in OPEC+ supply next year is therefore also ambitious."

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