|

The Fed could keep its Dot projections unchanged, delaying most USD moves to April’s data releases – ING

Economists at ING analyze how the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday could impact the US Dollar (USD).

No fireworks from the Fed

The short-term reaction in the Dollar should be primarily driven by projections on rates and other macro indicators. We expect an unchanged Dot Plot but admit that a hawkish revision looks more likely than a dovish one.

We doubt the meeting will prompt tectonic shifts in FX positioning. Potential Dot Plots adjustments point to some upside risks for USD, but cautious optimism on disinflation points to a softer USD. 

Ultimately, the Fed may not provide enough reasons for investors to diverge materially from the 75 bps of easing priced in by year-end, and the predominance of a data-dependent view may very simply delay any larger dollar and broader FX moves to the first half of April when key US figures for March are released. 

We would not be surprised to see a modestly stronger Dollar into the FOMC announcement and DXY to end the week close to 104.00.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD climbs toward 1.1800 on broad USD weakness

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and advances toward 1.1800 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar weakens and helps the pair stretch higher after the employment report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000 in October before rising by 64,000 in November.

GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

Gold extends the range play around $4,300

Gold edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range. Dovish Fed-inspired bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, along with the risk-off mood, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. However, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures on Thursday.

XRP dips as bearish pressure persists despite ETF growth

Ripple is finding footing above $1.90 at the time of writing on Tuesday after a bearish wave swept across the broader cryptocurrency market, building on persistent negative sentiment.

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.