The Fed could keep its Dot projections unchanged, delaying most USD moves to April’s data releases – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Economists at ING analyze how the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday could impact the US Dollar (USD).

No fireworks from the Fed

The short-term reaction in the Dollar should be primarily driven by projections on rates and other macro indicators. We expect an unchanged Dot Plot but admit that a hawkish revision looks more likely than a dovish one.

We doubt the meeting will prompt tectonic shifts in FX positioning. Potential Dot Plots adjustments point to some upside risks for USD, but cautious optimism on disinflation points to a softer USD.

Ultimately, the Fed may not provide enough reasons for investors to diverge materially from the 75 bps of easing priced in by year-end, and the predominance of a data-dependent view may very simply delay any larger dollar and broader FX moves to the first half of April when key US figures for March are released.

We would not be surprised to see a modestly stronger Dollar into the FOMC announcement and DXY to end the week close to 104.00.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.