AUD/USD ended the week just above 0.6500. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.
AUD outlook remains constructive
The Reserve Bank of Australia is reluctant to concede that the tightening cycle is over, suggesting that the policy rate will stay elevated for some time to come. Stimulus efforts in China may – eventually – lead to some sustained economic improvement in a key export market for Australia.
The AUD looks relatively ‘cheap’ among its major currency peers in broad terms and trades below our own short-term, fair value estimate currently.
Market sentiment remains bearish but aggressive short AUD positioning has eased somewhat from the peaks seen late last year.
AUD/USD – Q1-24 0.6600 Q2-24 0.6600 Q3-24 0.6800 Q4-24 0.6800
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.0770 on Dollar selling
EUR/USD manages to regain extra upside traction on the back of the renewed sell-off in the Greenback, reaching fresh daily highs in the 1.0770 region, or. two-day peaks.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2500 post-BoE
GBP/USD alternates gains with losses around the 1.2500 neighbourhood amidst extra weakness in the Dollar, while market participants continue to digest the BoE event.
Gold improves to multi-day highs past $2,330
XAU/USD now gathers fresh steam and advances to the highest level in many sessions north of the $2,330 mark per troy ounce on the back of further selling pressure hurting the Greenback as well as mixed US yields.
Solana meme coins TREMP, BODEN rise after Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance
Solana-based meme coins TREMP and BODEN post nearly 125% and 7% gains on Thursday. Former US President Donald Trump says his campaign will likely accept crypto donations.
Bank of England inches one step closer to a summer rate cut
The Bank of England is undoubtedly turning more optimistic, but it’s keeping its options open amid some uncertainty surrounding the near-term inflation numbers. We still narrowly expect the first rate cut in August.