Oil: Hormuz risks and fragile Iran deal – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights renewed security concerns for Oil as a cargo ship was hit near Oman, raising questions about safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, Brent trades around $73.8, at the lower end of its weekly range. He stresses that the Iran–US memorandum of understanding (MoU) remains fragile but currently supports Iranian Oil exports and restrains US economic risks.

Hormuz security and Brent price resilience

"A cargo ship was hit by an unknown object near the coast of Oman yesterday. The vessel took some damage, but the company reported that “crew, vessel, and cargo are all safe.”

"Still, these attacks force a rethink about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, just as shipping from the Gulf region was starting to pick up again."

"However, energy markets seem to believe the deal will hold."

"At $73.8 for a barrel of Brent, crude prices are still towards the lower end of this week’s trading range, despite the latest incident in Hormuz."

"Indeed, as fragile as the deal may be, both Iran and the US have a motive to stick to it – even though US officials blamed Iran for the incident, they also immediately downplayed the incident."

"The MoU allows Iran to sell oil and Iran may be able to get some resources back into the hurting economy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)