The bar is higher for the Fed to actually move the market – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The focus this week turns to the Fed. Economists at TD Securities see the bar rising for the Fed to generate a hawkish market reaction.

Fed to deliver more of the same

We expect the Fed to maintain a tightening bias, likely aiming to show the market that policy could be tightened further if needed.

The market is trying to unpack the nuances between the Fed’s rhetoric, data trends and surprises, and the aggressive tightening of financial conditions. There is a bit of a tug and war between these indicators, especially as some of the recent sell-off in longer-dated USTs doesn’t jibe with the data, Fed repricing or macro setup. Instead, it likely reflects a mismatch of supply and demand. That’s not fundamentally supportive of the USD, especially if breaks the growth cycle.

While we expect the Fed to deliver more of the same, it’s unclear how much further gains the USD will achieve unless the Fed appears more willing to open the door to more hikes.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD struggles near 0.7150 as Fed hike bets and Middle East risks underpin USD

AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weak note and hovers near Friday's low, around mid-0.7100s, as the US Dollar holds up on rising Fed rate-hike bets, bolstered by the US CPI. Furthermore, escalating Middle East tensions and clashes in the Strait of Hormuz underpin the safe-haven USD. However, hawkish RBA expectations could help limit deeper losses for the Aussie.

USD/JPY holds steady near mid-153.00s as traders await Fed/BoJ rate decisions

USD/JPY consolidates near a seven-month low touched last Tuesday as traders move to the sidelines ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's normalization path supports the Japanese Yen, while rising Fed rate-hike bets and geopolitical risks underpin the US Dollar, leading to the pair's subdued price action at the start of the new week.

Gold: Fed’s rate decision to drive the next move

Gold reflects a subdued performance at the start of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy week at around $4,330. Fed’s interest rate expectations heavily influenced last week after the release of the hot United States Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports for August.

Bitcoin consolidates, Ethereum faces hurdle, XRP nears key support

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) start the week near crucial technical levels after a broadly bearish performance, correcting over 4%, 1.5% and 5% last week. BTC consolidates around $77,600, while ETH approaches key $2,550 resistance. Meanwhile, XRP trades near its key level around $1.354, making this support level crucial for its near-term outlook.

CFTC Report: Japanese Yen reversal leads a broader positioning reset

The week in one sentence: Yen positioning swung back into net longs in the week to September 8, leading to a 103.0K-contract improvement. Canadian Dollar shorts also fell sharply, while Oil buying accompanied another price rise. Euro, Sterling and Swiss Franc positioning weakened despite firmer currencies, leaving those moves unconfirmed by speculative flows.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.