Thailand: Auspicious prospects for GDP and THB – UOB

Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja gives his views on the Thailand economy.

Key Takeaways

“Following stronger than expected 3Q22 GDP growth of 4.5% y/y, there are reasons to be optimistic in the few quarters to follow amidst consistently higher tourist arrivals that spur domestic consumption and spending.”

“More recently, earlier than expected China’s reopening has brewed more optimism ahead for the tourism-reliant Thai economy. In particular, we are likely to see continuous improvement in its services exports and consequently a stronger THB this year.”

“We expect a better and stronger recovery of the Thai economy in 4Q 22 (expecting growth circa 3.5-4.2% y/y range). Coupled with less aggressive BOT tightening of monetary policy compared to the other regional central banks to continue lending support towards growth recovery, we believe that the Thai economy is likely to be on the sweet spot of experiencing strong growth recovery and appreciating THB without slowing the pace of growth materially. Our 2022 GDP growth forecast remains at 3.2% and we forecast for it to accelerate to 3.7% this year and nearing 4% in 2024.”