Swedish Krona: Growth and future rate outlook favour SEK – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale argues that Swedish Krona (SEK) is poised to benefit from Sweden’s superior growth outlook and expected Riksbank tightening. While inflation keeps Swedish rates subdued for now, he believes it is only a matter of time before the FX picture changes, with Sweden forecast to grow 2.2% in both 2026 and 2027, outpacing Norway and Switzerland.

Swedish Krona backed by robust growth

"The SEK is the currency most likely to benefit from the decisions of the Riksbank, SNB and Norges Bank. The market prices only a remote chance of a Riksbank move tomorrow, but a 90% probability of a hike in November and a second hike in the first quarter of next year."

"Consensus GDP growth forecasts for 2026 are 2.2% for Sweden, well ahead of the rest of Europe. Switzerland, with consensus growth of 1.3% next year, is the next best performer, followed by the UK at 1.2%, Norway at 1.0% and the Eurozone at 0.9%. "

"Of course, the interest rate outlook matters more than the growth outlook, and Swedish rates remain subdued because of weak inflation. However, it is only a matter of time before the FX picture changes."

"The consensus GDP growth forecast for Sweden in 2027 is also 2.2%, while the next-best European G10 economies, Norway and Switzerland, are expected to grow by just 1.4%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)