|

Singapore Dollar: Upside risk stays contained against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD closed almost unchanged near 1.2924, but short-term momentum has turned slightly lower. Leang expects intraday price action to stay within 1.2900–1.2935, while over the coming weeks the risk of a break below 1.2890 is increasing, with another firm support at 1.2875 and strong resistance at 1.2955 capping the topside.

Downward bias with range constraints

"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we indicated that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 1.2900 and 1.2935.” While USD traded within a higher range than expected (1.2913/1.2938), it closed largely unchanged at 1.2924 (+0.04%). While there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 1.2900/1.2935 rather than a sustained decline."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have expected USD to trade in a range since early last week. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (02 Jul, spot at 1.2960), we stated that “we continue to expect range-trading, but we are revising our expected range higher to 1.2890/1.2990.” However, USD has been trading nearer to the lower end of the range since then. Downward momentum has ticked up, and the risk of USD breaking below 1.2890 is increasing. That said, there is another firm support at 1.2875. On the upside, a breach of 1.2955 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to continue to trade in a range."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold recovers further from two-month low amid some USD profit-taking

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce from the $4,100 neighborhood, or a two-month low, and climbs above $4,150 during the first half of the European session. The US Dollar pauses for a breather following the recent strong rally from the September monthly swing low and offers some support to the precious metal. Adding to this, receding bets on an October Fed rate hike benefit the non-yielding bullion.

Ripple and Stellar weaken as derivatives positioning fades
Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) face pressure trading below $1.499 and $0.220, respectively, on Tuesday after a modest correction at the start of the week. Traders should be cautious as weakening derivatives metrics and fading bullish momentum suggest further corrections for XRP and XLM. Derivatives data shows a weakening and cautious signal among traders.
Europe in focus as French and Spanish politics drive sentiment

There are no tier-1 releases today. Focus will remain on developments in the European markets and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. In France, the key issue in the coming days will be whether the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's National Rally signal they are willing to topple the government over the budget.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.