Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD steadies near $74.00; ascending channel breakdown in play

Silver struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session move up back closer to the $75.00 mark.
The overnight failure near the 200- EMA on H4 and ascending channel breakdown favor bears.
Any attempted recovery might be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain capped.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to the $75.00 neighborhood and retreats to the lower end of the daily range in the last hour. The white metal currently trades around the $74.00 mark, close to a nearly two-week low set on Tuesday, and seems vulnerable to slide further.

The overnight failure near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent break below a nearly one-month-old ascending channel were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bears. Moreover, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressures persist even as conditions approach exhaustion.

In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 31 in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative histogram. This, in turn, validates the near-term bearish outlook and backs the case for an extension of the XAG/USD's one-week-old downtrend.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the former channel floor at $76.33, with the 200-period EMA next at about $78.25, reinforcing a broader supply zone inside the broken channel. A sustained recovery above these hurdles would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure, while failure to reclaim them leaves XAG/USD vulnerable.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

XAG/USD 4-hour chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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