Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slumps but remains firm at around $22.10s ahead of US inflation data

Silver (XAG/USD) slides from June 7 highs at around $22.28, courtesy of higher US Treasury yields and a steady greenback amidst a risk-off market mood, which has investors scrambling to safe-haven assets, but not the precious metals complex. At $22.18, XAG/USD grinds lower by 0.39% at the time of writing.

Higher US Treasury yields and a solid greenback weigh on silver

The US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs. a basket of its rivals, is almost flat in the day, though slightly positive, at 102.342, recovering from earlier losses that dragged prices towards 102.269. The US 10-year benchmark note rate sits at 3%, gaining two-basis points, a headwind for silver prices.

European and US equities are falling, reflecting a dismal sentiment, weighed by rising bond yields. Investors assess global central banks tightening monetary conditions. As of Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be the next in line; though it is expected to hold rates unchanged, an announcement of the end of the APP can lay the ground for the first-rate hike in the July meeting.

Elsewhere, the OECD is the latest international organization to shrink expectations for higher global economic growth. By 2022, the OECD estimates growth at 3.0%, lower than the 4.5% estimated, and by 2023, it will hit 2.8% YoY, less than the 3.2% previously foreseen.

In the meantime, XAG/USD prices remain on the defensive after opening above $22.20. As soon as Wednesday’s Asian session kicked in, prices fell, though the non-yielding metal reclaimed $22.00 after reaching a daily low near $21.80.

In the week ahead, the US calendar will feature Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 4, followed by consumer inflation data, alongside the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment.

Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD): Technical outlook

XAG/USD remains in a choppy trading range since May 19. Pressured by a fragile mood and elevated US Treasury yields, silver traders could not break above/below the $21.28-$22.50 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.63 is trendless, portraying silver’s price behavior.

Upwards the XAG/USD’s first resistance would be the June 6, high at $22.51. A break above would expose the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $23.08, followed by the May 5 swing high at $23.28. On the flip side, the XAG/USD’s first support would be $22.00. Once cleared, the following demand area would be the June 1 swing low at $21.43, followed by the May 19 low at $21.28.