Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD revisits weekly low near $49.50 as Fed rate hold bets remain firm
- Silver price declines to near $49.50 as traders keep Fed rate hold bets.
- Fed’s Hammack stresses the need to bring inflation down.
- The US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% in September.
Silver price (XAG/USD) revisits the weekly low around $49.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the December policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 35.5%.
The scenario in which the Fed holds interest rates steady bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fed dovish expectations stay lower as officials remain concerned over rising inflation risks to the upside. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack stated that high inflation is the “real issue” of the economy, adding that “inflation is still too high and trending in wrong direction”, which calls for the need to keep the monetary policy “somewhat restrictive”.
Meanwhile, the rising United States (US) jobless rate has also failed to intensify Fed dovish expectations meaningfully. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price struggles to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $49.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors about the near-term outlook.
Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
