Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies above the 200-DMA, eyeing $22.00 ahead of Powell

Silver price climbs sharply as sentiment shifted slightly sour, and the US Dollar (USD) remains bid, sparked by month-end flows but also expectations of the posture of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell after the latest economic data. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $21.64 a troy ounce after clearing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.31.

Market players on the sidelines waiting for Powell's speech

US stocks remain mixed as traders await Jerome Powell’s speech. Throughout the last couple of weeks, Fed policymakers laid the ground that the central bank would slow the velocity of tightening but reiterated that the Fed has ways to go before pausing rate increases. However, risk-perceived assets rallied, even though no official expressed that the Fed would pause or cut interest rates.

Since the last Federal Reserve meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of peers, tumbled from 110.000 to 105.340, just above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). But lately, the greenback is finding its foot and meanders around 106.986, up 0.14% ahead of Powell’s speech.

Elsewhere, the US economic docket featured the ADP Employment Change November report, which showed that the economy added 127K jobs, below 200K estimates, and trailed October’s 239K. Later, the US Department of Commerce reported that Q3’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on its second estimate rose by 2.9% vs. 2.6% preliminary reading and crushed Q2’s -0.6% contraction.

In the meantime, US Treasury bond yields are putting a lid on the XAG/USD rally, with the 10-year benchmark note rate at 3.787%, up four basis points. Another factor keeping Silver from trading back above $22.00 is US Real Yields, which sit at 1.62% as of Tuesday.

Silver Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, the XAG/USD is upward biased once the white metal reclaimed the 200-day EMA. Additionally, a symmetrical triangle in an uptrend emerged, suggesting that buyers are in charge, after stepping in around the November lows of around $18.84. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, aiming upwards, with room to spare before turning overbought. Hence, the XAG/USD first resistance would be the $22.00 figure, followed by the November 15 high at $22.24 and the June 6 swing high at $22.51.