Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $70; 100-SMA breakdown underpins downside

Silver (XAG/USD) is up over 2.5% to near $70.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains sharply, but is still inside Thursday’s trading range, indicating that the broader trend is sideways.

The white metal is expected to trade with caution amid growing doubts over hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East war. Comments from peace talks mediators that Tehran had not requested a pause on Washington’s planned military attacks on Iran’s energy plants, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), have voiced concerns over the credibility of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s claims that he ordered the postponement of attacks as per Iran’s request.

Late Thursday, US President Trump announced through a post on Truth.Social that, as per the Iranian request, he has paused his plans of obliterating Iranian energy plants by 10 days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M. Eastern Time.

Signs of fading de-escalation in Middle East conflicts are expected to remain as a key drag on the Silver price, assuming that the longer the conflicts last, the stronger the odds that oil prices could rise further.

Higher oil prices have already raised consumer inflation expectations, a scenario that restricts global central banks from easing monetary conditions, which in turn diminishes demand for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver price struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band just above the $68.00 mark. Meanwhile, the technical setup suggests the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the downside and backs the case for an extension of the recent downfall witnessed over the past four weeks or so, from the monthly swing high.

The recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – for the first time since April 2025 – was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with its latest values negative, reinforcing downside momentum despite some recent flattening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, indicating weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions and leaving room for further downside if sellers press the move.

Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 100-day SMA, around $74.70. A daily close above this area would ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the $80.00 region as the next upside hurdle. On the downside, initial support is located at the recent low near $67.80, where a break would expose the mid-$60.00 zone as the next demand area in line with the broader moving-average-supported trend.

A sustained defense of $67.80 would keep the current pullback contained, while repeated failures below the 100-day SMA would maintain the focus on lower supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)