Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bears retain control near March lows, below $64.50

Silver drifts lower for the second straight day, also marking the third day of a fall in the previous four.
The overnight breakdown below the 200-day EMA was seen as a fresh trigger for the XAG/USD bears.
The bearish technical setup backs the case for deeper losses toward retesting the March swing low.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some follow-through sellers for the second consecutive day and drops to its lowest level since March 23 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal currently trades around the $64.35-$64.30 region, down over 1.5% for the day, and seems vulnerable to further weakness.

The recent repeated failures near the $89.00 mark constitute the formation of a bearish double-top pattern. Moreover, the overnight close below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – for the first time since April 2025 – was seen as a fresh trigger for the XAG/USD bears and validates the near-term negative outlook.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.31 hovers just above oversold territory and hints that sellers still dominate despite the risk of a short-lived corrective bounce. Adding to this, the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading at -1.28 reinforces persistent bearish momentum.

Hence, a subsequent fall below the $64.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the $63.35-$63.30 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The downward trajectory could extend further and eventually drag the XAG/USD back towards the March swing low, around the $61.00 mark in the near term.

On the topside, the 200-day EMA at $67.84 is the first meaningful resistance, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the prevailing downside bias. Until then, the aforementioned bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD remains to the downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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