Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD approaches four-week high near $81 on Iran optimism
- Silver price surges to near $80.80 as Iran truce hopes keep the US Dollar under pressure.
- US President Trump expresses confidence that the war with Iran is very close to an end.
- Traders price out Fed’s two interest rate hikes on US-Iran truce optimism.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 2.2% higher to near $80.80 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday, aiming to recapture the four-week high of $81.00. The white metal trades firmly as the US Dollar (US) continues to underperform in the wake of growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will soon reach a permanent ceasefire.
In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posted a fresh over six-week low at 97.85.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
The US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as comments from Washington have signaled that the war with Iran is “very close” to an end. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Washington is very much engaged in negotiations with Iran, and another round of talks is very likely to be scheduled in Pakistan, according to The Guardian.
In the first round of talks, the US and Iran failed to get a breakthrough as Vice President (VP) JD Vance-led team made clear that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran giving up its nuclear ambitions are non-negotiable.
On the monetary front, traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates this year, a sharp turnaround from two interest rate hikes projected in March, as higher oil prices boosted inflation projections globally.
Silver technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades near the horizontal boundary of the Ascending Triangle formation at around $80.80. The white metal holds a constructive near-term bullish bias as it trades above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.29 and maintains distance from the upward support trend line drawn from prior lows, which is now tracked near $75.81. Momentum aligns with this constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering just below the overbought band around 58, hinting that buyers retain control without yet signaling extreme conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period EMA at $76.29, ahead of the ascending trend-line support near $75.81. As long as XAG/USD holds above these layers of support, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective pauses within the broader advance, while a clear break below the trend-line region would weaken the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper retracement towards the April 7 low at $68.28.
Looking up, the Silver price could approach the March 13 high of $85.46 if it manages a decisive breakout of the horizontal boundary of the Ascending Triangle formation at around $80.80
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected at 07:30 GMT to say in the last paragraph before the Technical Analysis section that traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates this year and not cut. Also, in the second last paragraph, the April 7 low is $68.28 and not $68.81.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
