|

Silver Price Forecast: Can bulls defend $60 as the US Dollar climbs to one-year highs?

  • Silver slides more than 4% on Tuesday as hawkish Fed bets push the US Dollar to its highest level in nearly a year.
  • XAG/USD's technical outlook remains bearish, with key support seen at the $60.00 psychological level.
  • A break below $60.00 would expose deeper losses, while holding above the level would keep the broader range-bound structure intact.

Silver (XAG/USD) slides more than 4% on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) climbs to near one-year highs after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt at last week's monetary policy meeting reinforced expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $61.96, near three-month lows.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering around 101.24, its highest level since May 2025.

The white metal remains in a correction phase following an extraordinary rally last year and is down nearly 50% from the all-time high near $121 reached in late January. However, in recent months, price action has been largely confined to a broad $60-$90 range.

Multiple rebounds from just above the $60 psychological level suggest buyers are attempting to defend the zone, although a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields are threatening that support as markets price in the possibility of a Fed rate hike later this year.

A stronger US Dollar makes the metal more expensive for overseas buyers, while elevated Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver.

US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on Thursday could act as the next catalyst for Silver. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely boost the US Dollar further and strengthen bets on Fed rate hikes, leaving the white metal vulnerable to an extension of its downtrend. A softer reading, meanwhile, could pause the Greenback's advance and trigger a short-term recovery in XAG/USD.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, XAG/USD is extending a bearish tone as price holds well beneath the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which all fan out overhead as a cap on recovery attempts.

Momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the oversold band around 33, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 30 suggests a maturing but still active downtrend rather than capitulation.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 200-day SMA around $69.33, followed by the 50-day SMA near $74.33 and the 100-day SMA at about $76.70, before a more distant horizontal barrier at $90.00.

On the downside, the next key support is the horizontal floor at $60.00, where a break would open the way to further losses, while holding above it would merely signal consolidation within the broader bearish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.32%0.30%-0.05%0.21%1.00%0.70%0.06%
EUR-0.32%-0.04%-0.40%-0.14%0.63%0.36%-0.27%
GBP-0.30%0.04%-0.34%-0.08%0.70%0.40%-0.22%
JPY0.05%0.40%0.34%0.25%1.04%0.75%0.10%
CAD-0.21%0.14%0.08%-0.25%0.80%0.50%-0.14%
AUD-1.00%-0.63%-0.70%-1.04%-0.80%-0.27%-0.91%
NZD-0.70%-0.36%-0.40%-0.75%-0.50%0.27%-0.65%
CHF-0.06%0.27%0.22%-0.10%0.14%0.91%0.65%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

More from Vishal Chaturvedi
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.3200 on broad USD strength

GBP/USD declines toward 1.3200 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom weighs on the British Pound, alongside weak business PMI data for June. Meanwhile, the US Dollar capitalizes on the risk-off mood and stronger-than-forecast PMI readings, making it difficult for the pair to find its footing.

EUR/USD falls to fresh 12-month low below 1.1400

EUR/USD comes under renewed selling pressure in the second half of the day on Tuesday and trades at its lowest level since June 2025 below 1.1400. Mixed PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone makes it difficult for the Euro to find demand, while the risk-averse market atmosphere and the upbeat PMI prints support the USD, forcing the pair to stay on the back foot.

Gold drops to nearly two-week low, holds above $4,100

Gold (XAU/USD) turns south following Monday's rebound and trades deep in the red but holds above $4,100 on Tuesday. Despite positive signals from US-Iran peace talks, widespread skepticism remains toward a final deal and weighs on the precious metal. In the meantime, the USD gathers strength on hawkish Fed expectations and upbeat PMI data, dragging XAU/USD lower.

MiCA regulations could be the next bullish catalyst for crypto – Georg Harer, co-CEO at Bybit EU

The cryptocurrency market is losing momentum and liquidity due to the lack of a bullish catalyst. In an exclusive interview with FXStreet, Georg Harer, co-CEO at Bybit EU, says that the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations could inject liquidity into the crypto market from traditional fund houses.

Will PCE inflation data fuel bets of early Fed rate hike?

Warsh’s hawkish debut sparks sharp repricing in Fed funds futures. Inflation is front and centre as September hike now seen likely. Will PCE report due Thursday, 12:30 GMT, support the hawkish bets?

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.