Russian Rouble to weaken steadily over the long term – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) meets today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Rouble’s (RUB) outlook ahead of the decision.

No rate cut from CBR

No (polled) analyst is expecting a change to the Russian Central Bank’s main rate from the current 16%.

Needless to say: this rate decision does not influence the ‘technical fix’ USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates that we observe – those are determined solely by demand-supply of energy (and some other commodity) trade.

On that basis, we forecast the Rouble to weaken steadily over the long term. Interest rates could have potentially affected the exchange rate only if capital flows could have occurred in response to interest rate differentials. But in Russia’s case, this cannot happen in US Dollars or Euros because of sanctions.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD clings to humble gains around 1.1780

EUR/USD manages to reverse Tuesday’s pullback, sticking to daily gains around 1.1780 following an earlier bull run past 1.1800 the figure. The pair’s slight advance comes on the back of the equally marginal uptick in the US Dollar, as investors continue to closely follow developments on the trade front and news from the White House.

GBP/USD flirts with weekly tops north of 1.3500

GBP/USD leaves behind the previous day’s decline and regains fresh upside traction on Wednesday, surpassing the 1.3500 barrier in a context of a marginal advance in the Greenback and a generalised improved mood in the risk-associated universe. Meanwhile, the US tariff narrative continues to dictate the mood among market participants.

Gold picks up pace, focus on $5,200

Gold buyers are stepping back in on Wednesday, with sights set on $5,200 and potentially higher, after Tuesday’s pullback from monthly highs. The yellow metal’s recovery follows some loss of momentum in the US Dollar after Trump’s SOTU speech failed to deliver fresh impetus and AI-related jitters continue to fade.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple post cautious recovery amid downside risks

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are posting a cautious recovery on Wednesday following a market correction earlier this week. BTC is approaching a key breakdown level, while ETH and XRP are rebounding from crucial support levels.

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom, with Q4 revenue projected near $65.6–66.1 billion, nearly 70% higher year-over-year. But investors are watching cash flow, leverage, and broader AI adoption. Growth is strong, but the AI stress isn’t over.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.