RBA's Kent: Cash rate hikes are achieving their intended impact

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Chris Kent said on Thursday that interest rate hikes are producing the expected effect. Kent added that further rate increases possible if risks emerge.

Key quotes

Cash rate hikes are achieving their intended impact.

Elevated exchange rate aids in curbing inflation by reducing domestic import prices.

Cash rate near top of range of central estimates of neutral rate from various models.

Neutral rate estimates have significant uncertainty.

Conditions in housing market have softened noticeably in recent months.

Tax changes in federal budget likely curbed demand in established housing market.

Significant investment in data centres and AI infrastructure supports aggregate demand growth.

Board will carefully weigh broad factors influencing financial conditions.

Governor Bullock highlights uncertainty and upside risks on inflation.

Productivity has been very disappointing, makes inflation challenge tougher

Further rate increases possible if risks emerge.

Valuations in certain equity markets appear quite high.

No urgent need to shift reserves into other currencies.

Need history on trimmed mean inflation to focus on monthly CPI report instead of quarterly.

Trimmed mean data needed for a few years, maybe three years.

Board aware a few factors must align for inflation to fall.

Market reaction

At press time, the AUD/USD pair trades 0.03% higher at around 0.7064.

RBA FAQs

What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD breaches below 1.3500, two-day lows

GBP/USD faces renewed selling pressure, eroding the earlier advance and slipping back to the sub-1.3500 region on Wednesday. Cable’s loss of upside momentum follows the resurgence of the demand for the Greenback amid steady geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead, the British Pound is expected to remain under scrutiny in light of the release of UK GDP data on Thursday.

EUR/USD weakens to multi-day lows near 1.1520

EUR/USD makes a U-turn and trades with decent losses near 1.1520 following the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US Dollar’s recovery post-US CPI data keeps the risk complex under pressure in a context where geopolitics takes centre stage once again. Moving forward, attention remains on US inflation with the release of Producer Prices alongside weekly Claims.

Gold holds comfortably above $4,400, June 5 high amid receding Fed hike bets

Gold climbs back to its highest level since June 5, touched following the release of the US CPI report on Wednesday, and looks to build on an over one-week-old uptrend. Receding Fed-hike bets continue to drive flows towards the non-yielding bullion amid subdued US Dollar price action. However, the US-Iran standoff could limit any meaningful USD decline and cap the precious metal as traders now look to the US PPI for a fresh impetus.

Bitcoin shows early signs of bottom despite lingering market stress

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing several signs of a potential market bottom as multiple indicators show improving market conditions, according to CryptoQuant analysts. CryptoQuant data revealed that Bitcoin has produced a second early bull signal, a pattern that has historically appeared closer to market bottoms.

Gold has priced a Fed pause. The hike is still coming

July inflation landed exactly where the consensus had it, on all four lines of the release, and Gold responded by adding around 1% and holding fast near $4,400/ounce, trading at its highest since early June. A print that surprises nobody is not supposed to move a metal that far.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.