Pound Sterling nudges higher on Iran truce optimism ahead of US jobs data

GBP/USD trades with mild gains near 1.3560 in Friday’s early Asian session.
Trump said the truce with Iran is still in effect.
Traders brace for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later on Friday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.3560 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Hopes for a peace deal to end the Middle East conflict weaken the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset. The US April employment data will take center stage later on Friday.

US President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire with Iran is still in place despite fresh military clashes in and around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would be obvious if the ceasefire were over, per CNN.

The Trump administration has been waiting for Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the critical waterway and end the war. Growing optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal could drag the USD lower and act as a tailwind for the major pair in the near term.

Traders will closely watch the highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market consensus estimates 62,000 new jobs in April. This would be a sharp drop from the 178,000 jobs added in March. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3%.

The Bank of England (BoE) decided to leave the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% as widely expected at the last meeting, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of "forceful tightening" if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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