Polish Zloty: Glapinski probe seen low-impact for FX – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights accelerating efforts in Poland’s Sejm to hold NBP Governor Adam Glapinski accountable before the State Tribunal, amid allegations of politicising the central bank. Despite renewed political tensions linked to EU legislation and presidential vetoes, Ghose argues that, as a base case, the process is unlikely to significantly affect monetary policy or the Zloty for now.

Political risks but limited FX impact

"Poland’s Sejm Constitutional Accountability Committee is accelerating the motion to hold National Bank of Poland (NBP) chief Adam Glapinski accountable before the State Tribunal."

"Committee head Zdzislaw Gawlik remarked this week that the committee wants to present its report as soon as possible, and definitely before the end of the current parliamentary term in autumn 2027. The committee has been working since May 2024, calling witnesses and examining claims, mainly that Glapinski had politicised the central bank."

"Glapinski himself continues to ignore the process, pointing out that the Constitutional Tribunal has already weighed in on this issue and arguing that an absolute majority is not enough to prosecute Glapinski – hence, the State Tribunal procedure had already been superseded. The legal uncertainty around the legitimacy of the procedure and any eventual Sejm vote creates scope for another institutional dispute."

"Against the background of PiS’ split and the ongoing presidential veto politics, the process could become another political battleground. This needs to be watched, but for now the implications for the zloty are unclear; as base-case, we do not assume much impact on monetary policy or FX."

"The broader point is political. There had been some speculation that the coalition had dropped the matter, but Glapinski’s role in helping President Karol Nawrocki veto the EU’s SAFE bill may have re-kindled it."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold retakes $4,300 amid modest USD pullback but hawkish Fed caps upside

Gold climbs back above the $4,300 mark heading into the European session on Thursday, though it remains within striking distance of a six-week low touched the previous day. The US Dollar eases after touching a fresh high since late July and offers some support to the commodity. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with escalating Middle East tensions, should continue to underpin the safe-haven and cap the non-yielding bullion.

XRP and XLM rebound amid mixed signals

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) extend their recovery at the time of writing on Thursday after finding support at key technical levels. However, mixed derivatives and on-chain data for both altcoins suggest that traders remain cautious and have yet to show strong conviction in a sustained rebound. Derivatives data shows a mixed and cautious outlook among traders.

BoE expected to hold interest rate at 3.75%

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its sixth rate-setting meeting of 2026. Market analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%, which should be its sixth hold in a row following December’s 25-bps rate cut.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.