Polish Zloty: Glapinski probe seen low-impact for FX – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights accelerating efforts in Poland’s Sejm to hold NBP Governor Adam Glapinski accountable before the State Tribunal, amid allegations of politicising the central bank. Despite renewed political tensions linked to EU legislation and presidential vetoes, Ghose argues that, as a base case, the process is unlikely to significantly affect monetary policy or the Zloty for now.

Political risks but limited FX impact

"Poland’s Sejm Constitutional Accountability Committee is accelerating the motion to hold National Bank of Poland (NBP) chief Adam Glapinski accountable before the State Tribunal."

"Committee head Zdzislaw Gawlik remarked this week that the committee wants to present its report as soon as possible, and definitely before the end of the current parliamentary term in autumn 2027. The committee has been working since May 2024, calling witnesses and examining claims, mainly that Glapinski had politicised the central bank."

"Glapinski himself continues to ignore the process, pointing out that the Constitutional Tribunal has already weighed in on this issue and arguing that an absolute majority is not enough to prosecute Glapinski – hence, the State Tribunal procedure had already been superseded. The legal uncertainty around the legitimacy of the procedure and any eventual Sejm vote creates scope for another institutional dispute."

"Against the background of PiS’ split and the ongoing presidential veto politics, the process could become another political battleground. This needs to be watched, but for now the implications for the zloty are unclear; as base-case, we do not assume much impact on monetary policy or FX."

"The broader point is political. There had been some speculation that the coalition had dropped the matter, but Glapinski’s role in helping President Karol Nawrocki veto the EU’s SAFE bill may have re-kindled it."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)