Poland: Growth supported by investment rebound – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING’s Adam Antoniak expects Poland’s 2Q26 GDP flash estimate to be confirmed at 3.8% year-on-year, with fixed investment rebounding strongly thanks to EU and RRF-funded projects. Private consumption is seen slowing slightly as higher fuel prices and weaker wage growth weigh on purchasing power. August CPI is projected at 3.1% with core inflation stable at 3.1%.

Investment-led expansion offsets softer consumption

"We expect the flash estimate of Poland’s 2Q26 GDP to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY on 31 August. Statistics Poland will also publish a composition of economic growth. We estimate that private consumption growth eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.3% YoY in 1Q26 as higher fuel prices and further slowdown in wage growth put pressure on purchasing power."

"At the same time, fixed investment growth increased to 8.5% YoY from a disappointing 2.4% YoY in the previous quarter. Projects financed by the EU funds (including RRF) accelerated, and data on investment outlays of large companies in 1H26 point to strong investment activity in 2Q26."

"Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July. We estimate that core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1% YoY and the slightly higher contribution from fuel prices to annual CPI was probably almost fully cancelled out by the negative impact of food deflation that likely deepened."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rally loses steam despite steady ETF inflows

Bitcoin is back below $80,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after a second attempt at breaking resistance between $81,000 and $82,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple mirror Bitcoin’s cooling trend, with ETH sliding to $2,500 and XRP falling toward $1.40 support.

Week ahead – RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP

Dollar rebounds ahead of ISM PMI and NFP data. RBNZ is expected to raise rates; focus to fall on forward guidance. BoC is set to remain on hold; will it raise rates in 2027?

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.