Platinum: Market stays undersupplied but demand softens – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch says platinum remains in a multi-year deficit, with above-ground stocks expected to cover less than three months of demand in 2026. However, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data also point to a Q1 surplus and weaker demand. Fritsch sees platinum reaching USD 2,300/oz by year-end, mainly on higher Gold prices.

Tight stocks but weaker demand outlook

"The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects the platinum market to face a supply deficit of 297,000 ounces this year. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of a supply deficit in the platinum market. The supply deficit is also expected to be slightly higher than previously anticipated."

"With the deficit expected this year, above-ground stocks are set to fall to 1.747 million ounces and the stock-to-use ratio to 22%. Stocks would therefore cover demand for less than three months. It is also worth noting that the previous forecast for inventory levels this year was significantly higher, at 2.613 million ounces."

"However, there are also signs that market tightness is easing. For instance, in the first quarter, the platinum market recorded a supply surplus for the first time in six quarters. According to the WPIC, this stood at 268,000 ounces, compared with a supply deficit of 658,000 ounces in the corresponding quarter of the previous year."

"Platinum demand is expected to fall by 9% this year to a four-year low of 7.674 million ounces, according to the WPIC. The main factor weighing on demand is a significant weakening in investment demand, which is expected to more than halve compared with last year. The reasons for this are expected net outflows from platinum ETFs and an anticipated decline in exchange-registered stocks."

"The platinum price is therefore unlikely to generate strength of its own accord. Our expected rise in the price of platinum to USD 2,300 per troy ounce by the end of the year is primarily based on our forecast of a rising gold price."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD remains depressed 0.7000, awaits FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on its recent recovery move and trades with a negative bias below 0.7000 in Wednesday's Asian session. Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar attracts some dip-buyers after a fresh leg up in US bond yields, keeping the pair under pressure despite hawkish RBA expectations. All eyes now remain on the FOMC Minutes.

USD/JPY holds firm near 158.50 ahead of Fed Minutes

USD/JPY hangs close to a one-and-a-half-week high near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls now awaiting a move beyond the 200-day SMA hurdle before positioning for further gains ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Meanwhile, a fresh leg up in US bond yields revives US Dollar demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, boosting the pair amid dovish BoJ commentary.

Gold weakens further; door open to $4,000?

Gold leaves behind Tuesday’s decent advance and recedes toward levels just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The precious metal’s sharp pullback comes in tandem with marked gains in the US Dollar and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fall liquidating $550M

Bitcoin’s correction follows a recent rejection due to supply around $87,200. Altcoins are generally in a correction trend, as Ethereum edges lower toward the next key support at $2,600 and Ripple extends its down leg near the $1.45 demand area.

Fed Minutes set to provide some insight into the timing of next rate hikes

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Minutes of September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Investors are eager for some details that shed light on the extent and the timing of the central bank´s tightening cycle after approving the first interest rate hike in three years in September.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.