Oil: Upside risks build as supply tightens – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that WTI and Brent fell sharply but see upside for Oil prices as US–Iran tensions persist and no peace deal is in sight. They highlight tightening global and US Oil markets, falling inventories, and sharply lower Chinese Oil imports that could later rebound and tighten balances further.

Tightening balances and geopolitical risk

"The oil market sold off heavily yesterday, with WTI settling 3.4% lower on the day and crucially below $90/bbl."

"With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand."

"The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) continues to show a tightening in the US oil market."

"Crude oil inventories are estimated to have fallen by 9.1m barrels over the last week, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.2m barrels."

"This highlights China’s ability to help rebalance the global market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.