Oil: Hormuz risk and higher price path – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Iran has proposed a U.S. deal prioritizing reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, with nuclear talks delayed. He notes that the ongoing disruption to energy supply is lifting Oil price forecasts, with Brent above $90 per barrel through end-2026 increasingly seen as consensus as geopolitical risks stay elevated.

Hormuz proposal underpins Brent strength

"Acting via Pakistani mediators, Iran has proposed a deal to the U.S. that prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, postponing nuclear talks to a later stage.This aims to bypass internal Iranian disagreements on nuclear concessions."

"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has held talks in Pakistan and Oman, with further discussions expected in Moscow. The U.S. has yet to respond to the proposal."

"The U.S. blockade would be lifted first, but that could reduce U.S. leverage over Iran’s uranium stockpile and enrichment suspension, which are key objectives for the Trump administration."

"Oil price forecasts are rising as the disruption to energy supply continues. Brent remaining above $90/barrel through to the end of 2026 is becoming a consensus view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)