NZD/USD trims losses as US Dollar weakens ahead of Fed

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the 0.5860 price region on Tuesday, erasing almost all its intraday losses as the Middle East war escalates, pressuring the US Dollar (USD). United States (US) President Donald Trump claimed that NATO allies are not willing to intervene in the US and Israel war against Iran. Trump said that the US no longer needed or desired the help of Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with market players expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. The war could make policymakers rethink the future of monetary policy, as rising Oil prices fuel inflation risks. Attention will turn to updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks.

Meanwhile, hiring in the US private sector appears to have lost some momentum towards the end of February. The NER Pulse, the weekly ADP National Employment Report, noted that companies added an average of just 9K jobs per week during the four weeks leading up to February 28, below the 14.5K from the previous week.

Moving across the pond, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will have its interest rate decision on April 8, with investors already expecting an interest rate hold. On Wednesday, Statistics New Zealand will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q4, with the economy expected to expand 1.7% YoY.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5857. The pair holds below the descending 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) while clinging near the 20-period SMA, keeping a neutral bias within a consolidative phase. Price action has stabilized after the recent dip toward 0.5800, yet the inability to reclaim the 100-period SMA near 0.5916 caps upside conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, reflecting balanced momentum and suggesting that bears retain only a slight advantage for now.

Immediate resistance emerges at 0.5870, where prior horizontal rejection converges with proximity to the 20-period SMA, followed by the 100-period SMA area around 0.5916. A clear break above these barriers would weaken the bearish narrative and open the way toward the 0.5950 region. On the downside, initial support stands at 0.5836, with a deeper floor at 0.5816; a sustained move below the latter would revive selling pressure and expose the recent lows near 0.5800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)