NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi dips below 0.5950 as US Dollar strengthens
- New Zealand Dollar approaches weekly lows near 0.5939 after rejection ahead of the 0.6000 area.
- The US Dollar retraces some losses, supported by hot US inflationary pressures.
- The Kiwi's near-term trend remains bullish while above trendline support and the 200-day SMA.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) heads lower for the second consecutive day against a stronger US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as hot US inflation data released on Wednesday has renewed pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates in the coming months. NZD/USD bears are looking at the bottom of the weekly range, around 0.5930, after rejection ahead of the 0.6000 area earlier this week.
On Wednesday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index confirmed that inflationary pressures keep growing at levels well above the Fed's target, although bets for a September rate hike have remained practically unchanged, as measured by the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Strategists at ING remain “reasonably confident in [their] call for the Fed to hold on 16 September and, by extension, in a weaker Dollar.” The experts, however, caution that “the next three weeks may need to bring a more convincing combination of data and Fedspeak before markets move closer to a hold outcome,” underscoring that incoming US releases and policy communication will be critical in shaping rate expectations and the Dollar’s near-term trajectory.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD remains supported by an ascending trendline
NZD/USD trades at 0.5944, holding a constructive bullish bias with price action supported above an ascending trendline support from late June lows, now around 0.5900, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5844, a popular indicator in FX markets for assessing currency trends.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart remain neutral-to-bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 60, and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading underscoring that buyers still retain control, despite weakening traction.
On the topside, bulls are likely to face significant resistance in the mentioned 0.6000 area, which capped rallies in May and June. If that level gives way, the February 18 high, at 0.6054, and the year-to-date highs around 0.6100 would come into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.10% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.09% | 0.05% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.13% | -0.08% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.17% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.15% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.12% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.17% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.01% | -0.12% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
