NZD/USD holds gains for fourth day; eyes 200-day SMA near 0.5850 ahead of US data

NZD/USD turns positive for the fourth straight day, though the upside potential seems limited.
The Fed’s dovish tilt counters geopolitical risks, undermining the USD and supporting the pair.
Traders now look to the final US Q4 GDP and the US PCE data for some meaningful impetus.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's late pullback from over a two-week high and turns positive for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday. Spot prices climb to the 0.5835-0.5840 region during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to conquer a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) amid mixed fundamental cues.

Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed policymakers still expect one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027. This keeps a lid on the attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from a one-month low set the previous day and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. That said, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might continue to underpin the USD's reserve currency status and cap gains for the perceived riskier Kiwi.

Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump warned of renewed strikes if the Iran deal fails, suggesting that escalation risks remain on the table and favor the USD bulls.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of US macro data – the final Q4 GDP print, along with the crucial Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Apart from this, the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Friday, will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's policy outlook. Hence, a sustained move above the 200-day SMA pivotal barrier is needed to back the case for any further appreciation for the NZD/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product Annualized

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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