NZD/USD drops as Iran tensions boost USD ahead of NZ data

Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar rises as President Trump signals potential escalation with Iran.
Ongoing tensions and Iran’s reluctance to engage with the US pressure risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD.
Upcoming ANZ Consumer Confidence and Activity Outlook reports could drive the next move in NZD/USD.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair fell to the 0.5720 region on Tuesday, March 31, maintaining a weak tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid the escalation of the Iran war and steady United States (US) yields.

The Greenback continues to draw support from safe-haven demand and rate differentials, particularly after President Donald Trump delivered agressive remarks on Iran, warning of potential escalation. At the same time, Iran’s reluctance to engage with the United States has kept markets on edge.

At the same time, New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence data and the ANZ Activity Outlook are scheduled for release later in the day, providing impetus for the NZD/USD pair.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5722. The near-term bias is muted as the pair holds below both the 20-period and 100-period Moving Averages (MAs), which trend lower and cap intraday rebounds near 0.5760 and 0.5839, respectively. Price action has carved out a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5830 area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-30s, signaling persistent downside momentum rather than oversold exhaustion. While minor bounces could emerge after the recent slide, the technical structure favors renewed selling interest on approaches to the descending short-term average.

Immediate resistance is now at 0.5723, where a nearby horizontal barrier coincides with the latest breakdown zone, followed by 0.5760 around the 20-period MA, then 0.5907 as a higher resistance level. On the downside, initial support sits at 0.5717, with further bearish extension opening the 0.5710 level and then the more distant 0.5699 area. A sustained break below 0.5699 would reinforce the prevailing downtrend and expose lower levels, while a recovery above 0.5760 would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a corrective move toward 0.5839.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.