NZD/USD: Bullish profile for the rest of the year – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had a strong month of February, emerging as the best-performing G10 currency. Economists at ING analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

NZD/USD to break the 0.6500 mark the third quarter

Our view that rate cuts in New Zealand won’t start before August and that the Fed should instead start cutting during the summer translates into a bullish NZD/USD profile for the rest of the year. However, external volatility can offset the positives of a hawkish RBNZ in February and favour a near-term slide to more attractive levels for longer-term bullish positioning.

We see NZD/USD breaking the 0.6500 mark in 3Q24.

Some downside risks related to the US elections and potentially negative implications for China-related sentiment may warrant a less optimistic NZD profile in 4Q24.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD: Next on the upside is 0.7000

AUD/USD leaves behind Monday’s downtick and trades with marked gains, approaching the critical 0.7000 yardstick ahead of the opening bell in Asia on Wednesday. The pair’s solid performance follows the Greenback’s fresh downward trend amid cooling geopolitical tensions and caution ahead of the US CPI data.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold: Bears struggle to breach below $4,150

Gold now gives away its initial gains and resumes its decline, revisiting the $4,160 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with a mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

HYPE falls to $80 as ETF outflows and flat volume weigh on Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid (HYPE) declines 4% on Tuesday, briefly touching $80 as perpetual volumes stay flat and institutional interest decreases. Perpetual volume on the platform saw a modest increase last week from $41.5 billion to $42.5 billion. The metric matters because 99% of fees Hyperliquid captures from trading volume flow toward token buybacks.

S&P 500 earnings just hit a record. The AI data centre bill hasn't landed yet

S&P 500 companies are on track for a third straight quarter of earnings growth above 25%, according to FactSet. Their profit margin hit 17% in the April-June quarter, the highest in FactSet data going back to 2009. The cash behind those earnings has been shrinking for two years, and almost all of the shrinkage is in the handful of companies building data centres for artificial intelligence (AI).

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?