NVIDIA Stock Price and Forecast: Can NVDA earnings report push stock to all-time high?

Nvidia looks set to open strongly on Thursday as the chip manufacturer reported a strong set of earnings after the close last night. Nvidia shares actually fell on the regular session, closing down over 3% at $292.61. Chip stocks have been strong this year, so the reaction to a further strong earnings report will be key to see if this strength can be maintained. Nvidia has outperformed the sector as we can see below versus the benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). 

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a market-cap-weighted index of the 30 largest companies involved in the semiconductor industry. It includes Nvidia, Texas Instruments, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, etc.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock news

Nvidia reported earnings after the close on Wednesday. Earnings per share came in at $1.17 versus the $1.10 estimate. Revenue was $7.1 billion versus the $6.83 billion estimate. The company also issued guidance for Q4 that was higher than analyst expectations. Q4 revenue is now expected to be in the range of $7.4 billion versus prior estimates for $6.86 billion.

Nvidia shares rose 3% on the release and are currently 6% higher in Thursday's premarket.

A host of rating changes have been released as of Thursday morning from Piper Sandler, Bernstein, Jefferies and JPMorgan. Some dampening of the enthusiasm was the fact that The Financial Times reported that US regulators have also raised concerns over Nvidia's potential purchase of UK chipmaker ARM. The UK is to investigate the matter fully as it has concerns over national security.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock forecast

The key question here is whether this earnings report can push the stock to fresh all-time highs. Otherwise, we potentially put in a bearish double top or a bearish lower high. Neither a great outcome. Semis are hot, and earnings are strong, so the reaction is key. So far so good with the stock up 6% in the premarket.

Any failure to push higher and we fell it will mark the start of a gradual retracement back to $230. As demonstrated above, the stock has outperformed even others in the hot semiconductor sector, and with regulatory concerns growing over the ARM purchase maybe things begin to slow. With earnings and outlook strong, there is no doubting that. We would, therefore, like to see the stock push record highs ideally before this week is out to confirm the fundamentals. 

NVDA 1-day chart

The 15-minute chart shows the strong level of volume from the recent sideways move. Once Nvidia stock breaks above $311, there is a volume gap that means record highs should soon follow.

NVDA 15-minute chart