New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ seen starting rate hikes – BBH

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision as the key domestic event, with a first 25 bps hike to 2.50% expected. He notes this could trigger a knee‑jerk New Zealand Dollar (NZD) upswing, supported by improving business and consumer confidence. Markets price roughly 70% odds of a hike and nearly 100 bps of tightening over the next year.

Rate hike expectations support NZD

"The RBNZ policy rate decision is the domestic highlight (10:00pm New York, 3:00am London)."

"We expect the RBNZ to deliver a first 25bps rate hike to 2.50% which can trigger a kneejerk NZD upswing."

"The swaps curve implies 70% odds of a 25bps rate hike today and a total of nearly 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months. That’s roughly in line with the RBNZ policy path projection published in May."

"New Zealand business and consumer confidence surveys are indicative of an ongoing recovery in real GDP growth."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD corrects lower after testing 1.3400

Following Monday's advance, GBP/USD touched its highest level since mid-June slightly above 1.3400 early Tuesday but lost its bullish momentum. The pair trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3380 as investors adopt a cautious stance following news of Iran targeting commercial ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1400 as markets focus on Middle East news

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades in a narrow channel above 1.1400 on Tuesday after failing to reclaim 1.1450. The pair's upside remains capped amid a modest recovery in the safe-haven US Dollar, as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Asian tech sell-off fuel risk aversion.

Gold recovers above $4,150 following earlier decline

Gold stages a rebound after dropping toward $4,100 earlier Tuesday and trades above $4,150 in the American session. Crude oil prices edge higher amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflationary concerns. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, offering some support to the US Dollar, and making it difficult for the yellow metal to gain traction.

Bonk extends correction after $20 million hack from BonkDAO treasury

Bonk remains under pressure, trading below $0.0000044 after losing over 10% in the previous day. Monday’s correction occurred as Bonk Decentralized Autonomous Organization announced a governance exploit that resulted in the theft of $20 million worth of BONK tokens from its treasury.

Bye, forward guidance: How to trade when central banks choose silence

Central banks have spent years telling markets what might come next. Now, traders face the possibility that they say a lot less. From the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, policymakers are pushing back against forward guidance, arguing that the current world demands more flexibility.