New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027. Communication is viewed as consistent with moderate tightening, with fragile domestic conditions limiting follow‑through NZD gains.

RBNZ decision and NZD reaction

"The only notable move for the US dollar this morning has been weaker versus the New Zealand dollar which was in response to the decision of the RBNZ to raise the key policy rate by 25bps to 2.50%, the first hike since May 2023. The OIS market yesterday had 18bps priced for today and 85bps over the coming twelve months."

"We expected this move, but have only two further hikes priced by March 2027, slightly less than implied by the OIS curve now. We view the RBNZ communication today as broadly consistent with a moderate pace of tightening ahead."

"There was certainly no sense of urgency or any surprise hawkish rhetoric. Two members indicated in the Record of Meeting that inflation risks were skewed to the upside but the majority saw risks as balanced."

"The economy remains fragile and the RBNZ appears to recognise that. The 2-year yield increased just 4bps today so follow-through NZD buying should be contained."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)